BUSINESS TIPS: Roger Martin-Fagg Economic Update February 2009

Roger Martin-Faggs: Economic Update February 2009

Summary
This is the big one, the perfect storm is morphing into a Global Recession. The mountain of debt which had sustained asset prices throughout the last decade is deflating as the banking system shrinks to greatness. The reduction in M4 lending from 14% to 4% growth is reducing nominal GDP growth from the normal 5%-6% to the shocking 1.6% in the last quarter of 2008. As companies large and small revise their sales budgets downwards unemployment has begun an inexorable rise, which will gather momentum throughout 2009 and 2010.

All western economies will be in recession in 2009 and the emerging one’s will barely grow, including China. It will be the worst contraction since 1932. We will avoid a prolonged global if countries keep their free trade agreements alive, if just one turns protectionist we are in serious trouble, please note President Obama.

Full article available here: http://www.hilltopsit.co.uk/resources/business/20090204 - Roger Martin-Fagg Economic Update.pdf

Graphs here: http://www.hilltopsit.co.uk/resources/business/20090204 - Roger Maritn-Fagg Graphs.pdf